Thursday, May 7, 2020

Ferguson's follies

Reacting to multiple news stories about Neil Ferguson's inaccuracies in his model, notably:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/professor-lockdown-modeler-resigns-in-disgrace/

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

Damn.  I wish I hadn't paid so much attention to that model early on, and wouldn't have, had I known his history.  Again, the media has woefully misled us by foisting these doomsday scenarios on us without any context or even a cursory attempt to look into the background of the people purveying the models.

I fervently believe that if we had good information to read, given our enormously plugged-in social app using society, the American public would come to a pretty common sense consensus and move forward.  The weakness in that belief is the quality of our information.  Not only is it incomplete, it's often deliberately incorrect, shouted at us by idiots who don't understand what they're reporting and who refuse to entertain the slightest hint that they might be wrong or have more to learn.

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