March 26, 2020 - [in response to https://medium.com/@jpsmithalt/hold-the-line-17231c48ff17] I agree with what he's saying about how social distancing works. I question whether we're seeing increases in infections or lethality.
March 26, 2020 - Greensboro is now on lockdown. 😫 And I'm real curious how Ingles can have no more than 10 people in the store. Their STAFF is more than that. Even if they exempt employee count, you'll have a few shoppers inside and a hell of a lot of angry people outside. Someone will get shot.
March 27, 2020 - Death data in Georgia is maybe up slightly, but the graph is still more or less a straight line, not an accelerating curve.
It's
gonna be harder and harder to restart things the longer this goes on.
If we drift into mid-April still on lockdown and deaths start to taper
off, are they going to say, "Oops, guess we overreacted? Y'all go back
to work?" That will hardly engender confidence. Their best bet is to
beat their chests and say, "It worked! We're safe now. Go back to
work." In other words, government is going to have to claim whatever
they did worked, whether it did or not. The data is so fuzzy nobody
will be able to gainsay them.
March 27, 2020 - If
we were New York, some of these things might make sense. I'm not sure
they do make sense for Greene County at the moment. Of course, with
people fleeing New York City like rats, no telling how much they're
spreading this shit. Florida better look out.
I'm
somewhat concerned that someone will freak out and shoot somebody else
for breaking in line or something. Most folks are at least sane enough
not to do that, but it only takes one idiot and God knows there's more
than one idiot in Greene County.
March 27, 2020 - [responding to https://finance.yahoo.com/news/public-health-expert-coronavirus-is-going-to-hit-every-city-in-america-132731827.html]
After looking at it, my take is that this is useless fear
mongering with an underlying political agenda. They're just presenting
scary statistics in a vacuum without any context. Worse, they're using
the cases number, which as smarter people have been saying for three
weeks, is GOING TO GO UP AS WE START TESTING MORE!
Gee
whiz, can't we get that across? Case numbers mean next to nothing.
Deaths and hospitalizations are more indicative of what's happening. I
agree that New York City is going to be hit hard. I don't necessarily
agree that the virus will enfold us all. They provide no context for
anything they present.
I
object to this video, though, mainly because they present no response,
nothing anyone can do, just a bunch of doom and gloom with the clear
intention to scare us all. No discussion about whether social
distancing will work or not (it clearly works). This is completely one
sided with no discussion of reasonable response that would change what
happens.
The
situation is very fluid. It can change and is changing rapidly.
They're presenting it as though it's foreordained. It very much is not.
If this is journalism, it's completely irresponsible and should be debunked with real math, not scary charts.
March 28, 2020 - 1.4 percent is quite high, but likely way overstated based on such
limited testing. It's certainly a far cry from the 3.4 percent estimate
making the rounds last week.
March 28, 2020 - Dr. Birx...You've seen her at the news conferences standing by the
President. While she doesn't say so explicitly, her point is that the
media is not doing us any favors. [responding to Dr. Birx: Coronavirus Data Doesn't Match The Doomsday Media Predictions]
March 29, 2020 - I said the other day we need to see all cause mortality numbers for this time last year and compare to this year. Is there a statistical difference? I doubt it, at least not in Georgia, not based on what I've seen. Deaths ARE beginning to trend upward in my spreadsheet, but the numbers are still so small that the draconian shelter in place orders are out of proportion to what's really happening.
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