numbers don't lie but media does

We are finally, finally, finally seeing someone admit what I've been saying for weeks: the death rate from Covid-19 is dropping.  The case counts are indeed going up, mostly because of an increase in testing rates.

But - and this is the important part that most everyone is missing - increased cases do NOT mean increased infections.  It means we are finally finding all the cases that have been here all along; we just didn't know it before now.

The emphasis on case counts and the implied increase in infection is dishonest reporting or perhaps simple ignorance.  Most reporters aren't good at math.  Hell, most Americans don't understand math and especially statistics.  If they did, they'd be cheering the news that the death rate from Covid-19 is dropping and has been for weeks.

We are beating this disease, but the media doesn't want to know that, doesn't understand it, or refuses to tell you.  The dam is beginning to break, however.  Here's a link to one story that gets it right:

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/07/15/carefree_mis-reporting_of_virus_deaths_from_alarmist_media_498986.html

the politics of masks

First, a definition: mask in the text below refers to Covid-19 mouth and nose coverings.
 
Making it as simple as I can for the sake of cutting through the politics of mask wearing, let me state my position on wearing a mask in a two-sentence declaration.

1 - I am in favor of me wearing a mask at the present time.
2 - I am not in favor of any government mandate on mask wearing, either requiring or prohibiting them.

I will not dispute or support here any science-based reasons for wearing or not wearing masks, because I'm not arguing science here; I'm arguing politics and public policy. It may appear at first glance that my two numbered statements above are contradictory, but I want to briefly explain why they are not.  Instead, both statements are in harmony with my deeper general principles of the role of government in our lives. 

Those general principles could be summed up by announcing that I consider myself a small "l" libertarian in most situations.  I'm generally in favor of keeping governments as tiny and as unobtrusive as possible.  I'm mostly in favor of personal freedom and personal responsibility in most cases. Given my proclivities, it naturally follows that I do not favor government forcing me to do something, even if I think it's a good idea to do that thing in the abstract.

My position on masks mirrors my position on guns with a similar two-sentence declaration.

1 - I am in favor of me being armed.
2 - I am not in favor of any government mandate on firearms, either mandatory carry or mandatory disarming. 

In both examples, masks and guns, I favor doing what I believe is correct for me in the given situation without any government interference.  My wearing a mask is not a virtue signal of liberalism.  Nor is it any comment on anyone else's choice, and it's most definitely not an assertion on what anyone else should do.

we're discussing the wrong subjects

Following up on a point in my last post, we are mostly all in the wrong arena of ideas.  We should be discussing medical information on Covid-19, not policy recommendations.  As I said before, there is NO political solution to this virus, only medical.

A few people are trying to work on the medical stuff and there's some very interesting information that might (not does, but MIGHT) point us in the direction we need to pursue.  Here's a link to a smart article highlighting what we ought to be discussing instead of masks and lockdowns:

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/07/a-highly-qualified-reader-emails-me-on-heterogeneity.html

To summarize a bit the two points:

1)Could differences in severity be explained by genetics?  Our genetics, not that of the virus.  Some diseases, like Epstein-Barr, are only really bad if you have a certain genetic profile.  Otherwise, they're a minor irritant.  There's evidence that this may be the case with Covid-19.  If true, then most of us can safely ignore the disease and get on with our lives, while those truly in danger can take precautions and get the lion's share of the attention they need.  It allows a focused, nuanced approach to fighting Covid-19, rather than an endless, breathless bemoaning of the daily "cases" which don't matter.

2)There are two different strains circulating, the first is worse than the newer one.  Again, there's a lack of media attention to this, but there's mounting evidence in the medical data that the older strain was worse and that the newer strain currently circulating is much milder.  This scenario explains differences between some countries with low death rates and also explains east coast / west coast variations in the US.

This concentration on medical data is mostly absent from the media and definitely isn't being discussed, or probably even understood, by the frightened and ignorant politicians in Georgia who are illegally and Unconstitutionally mandating all sorts of policies that will have little to no effect because this is a medical issue, not a policy issue.

A virus doesn't vote and it won't obey your laws. 

elected officials cannot fix this

When I read things like the following, my hackles raise:

The number of COVID-19 cases in our county is rapidly increasing.  There have been at least 38 new cases identified in our community just since last Friday (July 3rd).  To better illustrate just how quickly the virus is spreading, the new cases since last Friday represent 20% of all cases in the county since we started keeping records around the first of March.  

As of this morning, there are 54 individual homes in the county that contain one or more residents who have been diagnosed with active COVID-19.  There are no specific geographic areas where there are more cases than others, and it appears to be spread pretty much throughout the county.  There are no active cases in any of the nursing homes or assisted living facilities in our community.  

This press release from a Georgia Sheriff goes on in this vein for a bit without really offering much in the way of a solution other than to obey the supposed experts. 

I've said it before and I'll repeat it until you get it: case numbers are bullshit.  They mean almost nothing important.  Deaths, specifically the percentage of deaths caused by the virus over and above baseline deaths is the very definition of an epidemic, per the CDC.  Deaths from Covid-19 are declining and have been for weeks and weeks and weeks to the point where we have very nearly reached a level that would define the end of the epidemic.  That is, the number of deaths is so low that the CDC definition of an epidemic doesn't fit and so we are no longer in one. 

In the ten county health district in which I live, there have been zero deaths for more than a week.  (source: http://www.oconeecountyobservations.org/2020/07/northeast-health-district-adds-83-new.html)

My own charts of the Georgia DPH data show the same decline in mortality rates statewide.  The red line is a rolling 15-day average.  The blue line is a rolling 5-day median.  I use both because I'm not convinced one is a better measure of central tendency than the other, but both are down from earlier peaks.

Case numbers are up because of increased testing, and yes, probably because relaxing standards for group contact, especially in younger populations.  But the danger is when I see someone from the government, like a Sheriff, who is NOT a medical professional nor a statistician, putting out a press release like the one above, it most likely means that official is seeking to justify another Unconstitutional power grab, nothing more.

The idea that there is ANYTHING an elected official can do, especially a law enforcement official, to affect a virus is absurd.  The virus does not obey any laws other than those of nature.  If you believe that we can legislate our way out of this virus, that makes as much sense as demanding that Congress repeal the law of gravity.  The virus will not go away because of legislation.  Nor will it leave just because we hide from it.  There is no law or regulation we can pass that the virus will obey and searching for one is ludicrous.

Take reasonable precautions based on your own adult common sense and stop letting elected officials scare you with numbers out of context, numbers they don't understand and cannot affect.

motivation

Just found a great motivation for long runs, or really any other difficult undertaking:

“You are doing a great job, you no longer feel like this is going well, you feel that you may be about to fail. This is normal. When you attempt something bigger than yourself, somewhere towards the end, when finishing is in sight, you start to feel at your lowest and that you are not capable of finishing. The more of these experiences you have, the better you will get at recognizing this moment, the one just before you finish, when you invariably feel like giving up.”

- Milner Ball



Quoted in a longer article from Flagpole Magazine:
https://flagpole.com/featured/2020/06/24/milner-balls-fierce-drive-for-social-justice-lifted-all/

ostentatious diversity

Trying to think about what's so annoying about the current push for racial diversity and it seems to me that the problem with it is that it presupposes that we're all racists who need to be told what to think.  Seeing someone demonstrating against racism is boring and puzzling.  Who - besides a few chucklefucks whose opinions can be ignored - is actually in favor of racism?

So when I see an earnestly angry post in favor of racial diversity, I react the same way I would if someone were angrily demanding that I be in favor of the sunrise tomorrow.  I never had a doubt that it was going to rise, so I don't need reminders about it. Screaming at me that the sun will rise tomorrow merely makes me question your sanity and want to get the hell away from you. 

Nor do I need a strident voice telling me that black lives matter, especially when that message is accompanied by the strong taint of condescension and superiority and delivered publicly for maximum feedback to the screamer in search of validation, with such validation feedback drowning out all other voices.

Perhaps we need less ostentatious diversity messages and more matter of fact depictions of life as we would have it lived. Show me some sunrise photos and let me comment on their beauty.  Likewise, show me the beauty of world you want, and then shut up and let me admire it without you demanding that I do so.

Edited to add: Charles Love has a much better explanation than mine when he writes:

"Efforts to stop discrimination and stereotyping perpetuate the perception that black lives really are inferior. The implication is that black life is hard, black life is poverty, black life is scary, and black life is sad. Woke whites aren’t saying that black lives matter. They’re saying that it’s up to them to make black lives matter."

Here's the link: https://www.city-journal.org/white-wokeness

There is no leadership

We lack leaders, people who will take a stand, defend it and inspire us to join them.  There are plenty of politicians, but those are people whose highest ambition is to remain where they are, to get re-elected.  Those are not leaders.

If you accept the notion that the country is polarized - and I'm not sure I do accept that - then neither side, no group, really has leaders in the sense of inspiring people.  There are people in charge, but they herd; they do not lead.

There's no shortage of people who are against something.  Protestors infest every large city and many smaller ones.  They scream that they're against racism.  That's so boring as to make me yawn.  Who, in any civilized nation, is in FAVOR of racism?  The easiest thing in the world is to find a target for ire.  Much more difficult is to clearly and calmly lay out a goal AND the steps to achieve it.  Easy to tear down a statue.  Harder to make a new one that will be respected.  Harder still to explain why it should be respected.  And probably hardest of all to engender that respect, instill it in others so that the statue rises, not because a politician ordered it built, but because the people together decided that it is natural and right that it should be erected.

Tearing things down is easy.  Any two-year-old who can throw a tantrum can do that.  Building something to last - let's try that instead.  First, we need a leader...