risk assessment part 1

Predicted deaths in Georgia from the Wuhan virus range from 1,000 to 27,000.  So far, the data does not support even the low estimate.  For the record, here are selected excerpts from what I've written in the past week to ten days.

March 8, 2020 - So as we test more in the coming months, we'll find more and it'll LOOK LIKE it's spreading, when all that's really happening is we're recognizing it more.

March 8, 2020 -  one more from the same source with real data analyzed by a real human, not some stupid reporter.  (referring to article entitled How Mass Hysteria Is Making Coronavirus Worse Than It Actually Is - Worth)

March 10, 2020 -Finally somebody put together a good bit of writing that encapsulates the facts.  Compare what this article says to what's on the broadcast networks and they start to look like the idiots they are.  This should be mandatory reading:https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/coronavirus-seeing-through-the-fog-of-fear

March 13, 2020 - We are taking something that is a problem and turning it into a crisis by being stupidly misled by reporters who don't understand math.  Concern is appropriate.  Panic is not.

March 13, 2020 - The US should copy South Korea's approach.  Instead of draconian stoppage and lockdown that will likely cripple the economy, why not trust people, especially medical professionals, to do their jobs and use common sense?

March 13, 2020 - This episode is going to go down as the worst over reaction and media driven idiocy in recent history.

March 14, 2020 - Much of the closures are probably not legal and the voluntary ones are mostly unnecessary.

March 16, 2020 - (responding to Dr. Oz's predictions) It appears to me he's just pulling numbers out of the air.  And if he believes ANYTHING about the China numbers, he's deluded.  The story says the number of cases "surged" recently.  Of course they're surging, but mainly because we're actually starting to do some testing and finding out it's more wide spread than we ever thought - AND NOBODY NOTICED.

This is still the most over hyped hysteria we'll ever see (until the next one). 

March 16, 2020 - You can't spell pandemic without Dem Panic.  Check out the proposals mentioned in this article for one Illinois city.  I'll quote them here:

The city council proposed to grant extraordinary powers to the mayor, which include:

• Banning the sale of firearms and ammunition;
• Banning the sale of any alcohol;
• Closing of all bars, taverns, liquor stores, etc.;
• Banning the sale or giving away of gasoline or other liquid flammable or combustible products in any container other than a gasoline tank permanently fixed to a motor vehicle;
• Directing the shut-off of power, water, gas, etc.
• Taking possession of private property and obtaining full title to same;
• Prohibiting or restricting entry and exit to and from the city.

How the hell is any of this legal?  Why is it necessary?  It's not, IMO, and they're pushing to see how many sheep we have in the population. 

March 16, 2020 -  his is exactly what I was afraid would happen, using this "crisis" for massive government overreach and control and loss of freedom in the name of public safety...It's almost out of control now...People in office are power hungry control freaks who see this as an opportunity to set some precedents that will become accepted practice in future years.

March 17, 2020 - Social media shaming and gang raping contrary opinions has led to a herd mentality on this event that we will all be shamed by later on.  The truth is that there's no one in charge, and the ones who think they are in control have lost control of events.  I have no idea how it's going to play out now, but I'm hoping for some sort of sheepish return to good sense by May.  I fear it could be longer, though.

March 17, 2020 - Kemp and his team sounded like they're on top of the situation with pragmatic sensible answers. Hopefully we are beginning to pull back on the insane overreaching.

background noise

I'm ready for this Wuhan Bat Flu pandemic to fade a little.  The stock market has dropped the Dow from near 30 thousand to just under 20 thousand, a loss of about one third.  My IRA is shot and unless it recovers, so are my longer term plans for retirement.

The news stories are all of the increasing number of cases, but never of the deaths, which is the real number.  Cases don't mean a thing because the sampling, the testing, is not being done randomly out of the entire population, but selectively only from those who present themselves with symptoms.  Deaths will be low.

Toilet paper shortages?  Really?  Hoarding, social distancing, businesses by the hundreds of thousands closing, layoffs, canceled presidential primaries, worry - all are becoming common.  The news media is beginning to be repetitious, which is a good sign.  Soon the novelty will wear off and we'll notice we need more in our lives than news about the virus.

This is the new normal for a while, so the virus and its news will become background noise for whatever else we're doing in our daily lives.  It's about damned time we wake up from this fever dream and realize most of us should be ashamed of how we've been acting.

Wuhan Bat Flu

Here's an interesting thing to think about.  Would the collective freakout have occurred if the outbreak had a different name with the word "flu" in it?  We'll never know, but I believe part of the problem is that the name sounds like something out of control already, whereas if it were the "Blank Blank Flu" it wouldn't sound so bad.

Thus, for me it's now the Wuhan Bat Flu.

 

At this point, it appears we are in the midst of mass hysteria with everything from schools to the NBA season closed down.  We have elevated a problem into a crisis, causing damage where none should have occurred and trashing our economy in the name of stopping the spread of something we can't control but could mitigate.

 

The focus should be on mitigating the highest risks, not stopping the spread, which is impossible.

#cannotimpeachmyvote

This impeachment is a badge of honor and Trump, instead of getting mad about it, should glory in it, much like people adopting Hillary's "deplorables" label and proudly proclaiming themselves members of that group.  I'd like to see a new hat or shirt with a new Trump slogan along the lines of "They can't impeach my vote."  

In fact, maybe that should be a new hashtag.  Hmm...

#theycan'timpeachmyvote

#theycannotimpeachmyvote

MTN 1.3 wide for a lightweight hammock

This bit is cross-posted from my review over at Ripstop by the Roll's website

My order of 4 yards of MTN 1.3 wide arrived in a timely manner. This is a light, slick fabric with just the right amount of stretch to be comfortable for my 155 pounds. To sew it, I used a teflon foot on the Singer Heavy Duty and that made the job much, much easier.

The finished product was exactly what I was aiming for. I wanted a hammock just a smidge under 11 feet, and it came out 10 feet 10 inches on the dot, which was perfect. Generous hemming gave me a width of 62.75 inches, within a quarter inch of the 63 I was aiming for. More skilled sewers could certainly use a smaller hem and make a wider hammock with this fabric if needed.

The finished product weighs exactly 10 ounces, including the two amsteel end loops and the zingit ridgeline. I'll make a stuff sack out of the left over material, so I expect the weight with stuff sack will be a few tenths over 10 ounces, which is outstanding for such a wide fabric.

notes on a possible topic

Just some notes to remind myself to write this out later

Practice Failure

When my wife had foot surgery and was forced to perambulate on one good leg using either a walker or a knee scooter for the injured one it suddenly struck me how scared she was of falling over while moving around.  My dad and I built a temporary ramp onto the back porch of my house to ease access for my wife while she was mobility challenged for the several months it took her to recover.  We had it completed some days before her initial surgery, and she practiced with the knee scooter prior to surgery, rolling up and down the ramp.  Her trips were slow, unsteady and trepidatious.  In contrast, I tried it a few times and it seemed like no big deal. 

Having thought about it, I think the difference in our approaches was partly because I wasn't too worried about falling while she was terrified of doing so.  I didn't much care about falling off the scooter because falling isn't a new experience for me.  I've practiced falling many times over the years as part of everything from learning to slide in little league baseball to performing breakfalls in various martial arts classes.  Having the ground suddenly tilt up and smack me, while it's not pleasant, is not a new sensation.  If me falling is a failure, then it's a practiced failure.

My wife looked at me like I was nuts when I told her she should practice falling.  To practice falling is to practice failure.  If you practice falling you no longer fear it.  Same goes for failures of other sorts.  Practice failing and you won't fear it as much.  Thomas Edison knew it.  Good cooks know it too.  Your first cake may come out flat or burned.  That's fine.  You took a risk and the outcome wasn't optimal, so try it again.  Edison failed to invent the lightbulb more than a hundred times.

Daily life is often unsatisfactory, I believe, because of the lack of identifiable risks.  That's what's so fun about backpacking.  It's not a completely comfortable and safe activity; there are some risks.  Maybe I'll be cold at night.  Maybe I'll get lost for a while, or at least be unsure that I'm still heading where I think I'm heading. That's okay.

[REM - need to think more about this risk versus danger stuff]

from USG survey responses

Those of us who have weathered cancer will never take the health of our bodies and minds for granted again.  Cancer forced its own suffering on me in its own terms.  In response, the self-sought suffering of backpacking on the trail is by my own conscious choice. Blistered feet, aching knees, cold-numbed fingers on a frosty morning are not hardships but proof that I'm alive and well after cancer. When backpacking I'm choosing my suffering, rubbing up against the callous, uncaring, indifferent attitude of the natural world and making a contest on my terms in my time. Every struggling mile uphill, all the camps by rivers or on mountain sides, and each night that I spend alone in the woods listening to the coyotes in the distance is my way of howling back at the disease that I hope I've left behind me forever.  Backpacking has deep meaning beyond simply an being an enjoyable leisure activity.  It's a defiant celebration of the joy of fitness and health.