Originally on March 29th I projected 300 deaths in Georgia by Easter from the Wuhan virus. If I were making that prediction today, based on data that's been released since the date of my original prediction, I'd make it closer to 400 deaths. The +/- 50 I'd keep the same.
Thus my updated prediction based on the latest data is 400 deaths in Georgia by Easter, +/- 50.
What is somewhat troubling is that the official prediction for April 2 was lower than the actual deaths for that date, and the same for April 3. Their model has many, many more people dying than I am predicting. So far they are actually lower than the real death toll. I hope they are wrong, else we are in for a horrific few weeks this month.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Blog Archive
-
▼
2020
(54)
-
▼
April
(12)
- problems with the IHME virus model
- It's the taxes, stupid
- Risk assessment part 5
- shutting down the shutdown
- and a repost from woodswomyn
- Reposting from John F. Harris
- What's a proper response?
- How the predictions panned out
- risk assessment part 4
- not horseshit but it's horseshit
- updated prediction
- we're shut down
-
▼
April
(12)
No comments:
Post a Comment